Support vector machine-based spatiotemporal land use land cover change analysis in a complex urban and rural landscape of Akaki river catchment, a Suburb of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Intense level of land use land cover (LULC) changes has been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the central highlands of Ethiopia, due to rapid population growth and urbanization process. However, quantifying and identifying the rural-urban landscape changes are challenging. In this study, LULC changes during the years 1984, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021 have been analyzed using satellite imageries and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms in a heterogenous rural and urban landscape of the Akaki river catchment, central highlands of Ethiopia. The LULC change drivers were evaluated by applying LULC thematic change analysis combined with key informants' interviews. Seven LULCs that include: Built-up area (BTA), Cropland (CL), Grassland (GL), Waterbody (WB), Plantation Forest (PF), Woodland (WL), and Bareland (BL) were detected. The result shows that 51.3 % of the catchment area has been transformed into other land uses. BTA increased by 24.7 % while GL and WL reduced by 18.1 % and 5.9 % respectively. Large areas of CL (61 %) and GL (22 %) were changed into an urban landscape. The spatial and non-spatial analysis revealed that the major spatiotemporal LULC change drivers between 1984 and 2005 were land use policy and legislation change and the Eucalyptus tree plantation campaign. Whereas, low-cost housing programs, informal settlers, market opportunity, and real estate development were the main drivers for the LULC changes between 2006 and 2021. The study also found the key informant observation and SVM image classification results are aligned and therefore, we found the SVM-based classifications are suited for such complex rural-urban landscape change and pattern analysis. The outcome of this research can contribute to improving land use policy, its management, and public understanding of the LULC dynamics and its implications.

Planning for ecosystem services compensation in the central highlands of Ethiopia.

The rapid deterioration of the upper Akaki catchment natural environment has led to an increasing impact not only on the watershed ecosystem but also the livelihood and the general well-being of the local community. As a result, the water supply is becoming a problem for Addis Ababa and its surrounding residents. This may lead to a greater willingness to pay and cooperate in initiatives to protect the watersheds. Therefore, a market-based instrument and participatory arrangements are critical for resolving socioecological problems. This research aimed to demonstrate a need for an incentive-based watershed conservation approach that can be used to support nature conservation through long-term financial investments in the central watersheds and elsewhere. To support the market-based intervention, sealable ecosystem services and cost-benefit analysis, as well as relevant stakeholders, institutions, and legal frameworks, were assessed. The prime factors for designing market-based approaches to halt biodiversity loss and reversing ecological processes are discussed. A domestic water tariff increase of ETB 1 per m3 (US$ 0.08) could raise approximately US$ 3.24 million annually for watershed management, which could compensate smallholder farmers' annual opportunity costs for crop and livestock forage loss. Furthermore, the practice could help to abate biodiversity loss, improve the local economy, and accelerate the implementation of global biodiversity targets. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1-10. © 2023 SETAC.

Impact of land use land cover changes on ecosystem service values in the Dire and Legedadi watersheds, central highlands of Ethiopia: Implication for landscape management decision making.

Land use land cover change in a landscape is the main driver of degradation in ecosystem goods and services. This study was aimed at analysing the dynamics of the LULC change in the catchments of the water supply reservoirs as well as the impact on the Ecosystem Service Values (ESVs) between 1985 and 2022. The benefit transfer method was used to evaluate ecosystem service value (ESV) changes in response to LULC. The watersheds experienced substantial LULC changes. As a result, the natural vegetation, grasslands, and eucalyptus plantations declined dramatically, while settlements and cultivated lands considerably increased. The global and local ESV estimates show a dramatic decline in ESVs between 1985 and 2022. According to global and local ESV estimates, total ESV in the Legedadi watershed has decreased from approximately US$ 65.8 million in 1985 to approximately US$ 11.9 million in 2022 and from approximately US$ 42.7 million in 1985 to approximately US$ 9.66 million in 2022. According to global and local ESV estimates, total ESV in the Dire watershed decreased from approximately US$ 437 thousand in 1985 to approximately US$ 59 thousand in 2022 and from approximately US$ 225 thousand in 1985 to approximately US$ 36 thousand in 2022. The overall decline in ESV demonstrates that the natural environment is deteriorating as a result of replacement of the natural land cover by other economic land uses. Hence, it is highly recommended that implementing sustainable watershed management practices to halt the dramatic loss of natural ecosystems must be a high priority.

Dynamics of green spaces- Land surface temperature intensity nexus in cities of Ethiopia.

In this study, the dynamics of green spaces and land surface temperature patterns in four cities in Ethiopia were investigated using Landsat imagery. The typical characteristics of LST over the past three decades (1990-2020) in relation to green space dynamics were first investigated; subsequently, the spatial distribution of LST was characterized based on hybrid geospatial techniques and mono-window algorithm analysis, in which the contributions of green spaces to LST were studied. In addition, the multiple linear regression method and spatial regression models (SRMs) were employed to investigate and predict the spatial dependence of LST and urbanization-induced green space dynamics. Results show that cities horizontally expanded unceasingly from 1990 to 2020, with a substantial discrepancy in expansion rates and the spatial patterns of UHI intensities among the cities (p < 0.05). Moreover, the area proportion of the UHI is significantly larger than that of the UGS, and the differences in the UGS cooling contribution were found in different land uses and zones of the cities. In the study periods, the spatial pattern of LST was significantly controlled by NDBI, and its coefficient in the OLS followed the pattern NDVI > MNDWI > latitudes > longitudes > population density > DEM. Due to the large proportions of buildings While green land and water bodies show significant capability to mitigate UHI effects, cooling effects are not apparent when their sizes are small. Besides, the SRMs show that UHI intensities were significantly influenced by MNDWI in Bahir Dar and Hawassa (p < 0.01).Cities' LAMBDA coefficients have a positive relationship with UHII (p < 0.01). Our study could help city planners and the government understand the current cooling potential of existing UGS to mitigate the dynamics of UHI and sustain the sustainability of green space management in cities.

Analysis of land suitability for apple-based agroforestry farming in Dire and Legedadi watersheds of Ethiopia: implication for ecosystem services.

This study was conducted to evaluate land suitability for apple farming in the Dire and Legedadi watersheds of the central highlands of Ethiopia. Attributes that determine apple growth were categorized into environmental, soil, climate, and land management factors. The land evaluation methodology developed by FAO (1976) was applied in six steps. First, nine thematic layers are prepared. Second, pair-wise comparison matrices were performed using AHP. Third, thematic layers are reclassified. Forth, weights are assigned to each class. Fifth, weighted overlay analysis was performed to produce a land suitability map. Finally, the land suitability map was classified into high, moderate, marginally suitable, and unsuitable categories. Soil type received the highest weight of 1.98 followed by elevation and LULC of 1.51 each. The mean temperature, rainfall, soil pH, and soil drainage weight were 1.41, 0.94, 0.56, and 0.52 respectively. Whereas the slope and aspect weighted the lowest at 0.38 and 0.19 respectively. Out of the total area of the watersheds, about 14 km2 (6.7%) and 12.34 km2 (13.1%) are highly suitable for apple farming in the Legedadi and Dire watersheds respectively. Whereas, about 113.35 km2 (53.8%) and 42.54 km2 (45.2%) of land are not suitable in the Legedadi and Dire watersheds respectively. Landholders who play a pivotal role should be incentivized to grow perennial crops (e.g., apple-trees) to enhance environmental income and alleviate poverty.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil loss and sediment export in Upper Bilate River Catchment (UBRC), Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.

Soil loss is one of the major challenges for agricultural production in the Ethiopian highlands. The rate and distribution of soil loss (SL) and sediment export (SE) are essential to map degradation "hotspot" areas for prioritizing soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study was to estimate the dynamics of SL and SE in the Upper Bilate River Catchment of Central Ethiopia. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to estimate and map SL and SE. The primary input data were rainfall, soil data, land use, and other biophysical parameters of the study area. The model output confirmed that the average total soil loss of the catchment was 36.8 million ton/yr. It is modeled that soil loss doubles within 30 years. The average annual sediment export was about 3.62 ton/ha/yr. The mean annual soil loss of the study area was 23 ton/ha/yr, which exceeded the soil loss tolerance (SLT), estimated to range between (2-18 ton/ha/yr) in Ethiopia. Based on the soil erosion risk level, about 22% of the catchment area was classified as severely degraded, while 62 % was moderately degraded. Severe soil erosion prevails in the sub-watershed (SW)-5, SW-4, and SW-13. Therefore, these sub-watersheds need priority conservation action to restore the ecosystem processes of the study area.

Impact of landscape pattern changes on hydrological ecosystem services in the Beressa watershed of the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia.

Landscape pattern changes are mostly due to human activities, and such changes often affect ecosystem functions and services. This study was conducted to evaluate the response of hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) to structural landscape changes. Spatiotemporal changes in two specific HES indicators, water yield (WY) and sediment export (SE), were quantified by analyzing historic (1972-2017) and projected land use/land cover changes (2017-2047). The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Model was used for this purpose. Results indicated that WY and SE changed significantly (p ˂ 0.01) during the study period. The total WY and SE increased by 30.29% and 98.69%, respectively, between 1972 and 2017. Analysis of the projections for the next three decades (2017-2047) suggested an increase in WY and SE by 4.8% and 93.11%, respectively. Furthermore, results revealed that WY and SE are strongly influenced by landscape composition, and metrics such as percentage of landscape (PLAND), mean patch size (MPS), and large patch index (LPI) of farmland and plantations were found to be key factors affecting HESs degradation in the Beressa watershed. PLAND (VIP = 1.34; w = 0.55; and VIP = 1.32; w = 0.56) and MPS (VIP = 1.32; w = 0.50 and VIP = 1.31; w = 0.56)) of farmland cover contributed most to the changes in WY and SE, respectively. Similarly, PLAND (VIP = 1.33; w = 0.54 and VIP = 1.28; w = 0.52), LPI (VIP = 1.27; w = 0.52 and VIP = 1.30; w = 0.54) and MPS (VIP = 1.29; w = 0.52) of plantation cover also contributed more to the change in WY and SE. Besides that, of anthropogenic factors, compositions of natural vegetation and grassland cover were found to heavily influence HESs in the watershed studied. The findings of the study suggest that soil and water conservation interventions are vital to minimize and control water-related problems and enhance ESs.

Integrating river restoration goals with urban planning practices: the case of Kebena river, Addis Ababa.

In the urban environment, rivers are most affected by development mismanagement to the extent that some of the essential services such as habitat for biodiversity conservation, recreation and domestic uses to communities are critically impaired. Consequently, river restoration is presented as practical solution to address urban river degradation issues and to revitalize urban rivers and river buffers. Goal setting along with clear and measurable goals in urban river restoration processes is one of the critical tools to guide restoration activities. This study aims to assess the qualitative effects of clearly defined river restoration goals and analyze their tangible effects on river restoration efforts in Kebena river watershed, Addis Ababa. Qualitative data from expert interviews, stakeholders' consultation, document review and institutional analysis are used to inform this research. The results show that the Environmental Protection Authority and Structural plan of the city have vaguely defined river restoration goal in the planning and implementation phases of river restoration projects. On the other hand, the goals of different institutions varied in context, while others were redundant and lacked synergy. As a result, urban rivers and river buffers accommodate various land uses that are negatively affecting the potential of rivers and river buffers in benefiting communities. Finally, the study forwarded critical methodological steps to guide the formulation of a well-defined goal and setting priorities for concrete actions to restore the river.

Dynamics of urban landscape nexus spatial dependence of ecosystem services in rapid agglomerate cities of Ethiopia.

Understanding the dependence of ecosystem services (ESs) on the dynamics of human-semi nature-coupled ecosystems is crucial for urban ecosystem resilience. In the present study, the responses of ESs to land use land cover transitions were explored and compared, selecting Addis Ababa, Adama, Hawassa, and Bahir Dar cities in Ethiopia. The geospatial data and benefit transfer approach was used to estimate the nexus over a three-decade period (1990-2020). Moreover, the bivariate Moran's I and spatial regression models were employed to analyze the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. The findings showed that the built-up increased by 17,341.0 ha (32.2%), 2151.3 ha (19.6%), 2715.2 ha (12.2%), and 2599.7 ha (15.7%) for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively over the investigated periods. Besides, the total ESV weighed by 24.8%, 8.9%, 0.7%, and 3.9% from the US$ 277.9, 55.5, 100.3, and 90.9 million for Addis Ababa, Adama, Bahir Dar, and Hawassa cities, respectively from1990 to 2020. Synergies occurred among local climate regulation and recreation services, and trade-offs existed among other services. A persistent rising trend in the ESVt was found for all cities the upsurge in Addis Ababa being much sturdier than in others. However, the elasticity of ecosystem of land use (EEL) showed that 1% of the LULC transformation was caused by 8.9% changes in ESV. Besides, the results from the global bivariate Moran's I show substantial positive spatial correlations between ESV, and Integrated Land use Dynamic Degree (ILUDD), Land-Use Intensity (LUI), and Land Use Diversity (LUD) (p < 0.001). Spatial lag model and special error model were shown to be fitting more than the Ordinary Least Square in establishing relationships among the spatial dependence of ESV on urbanization. In contrast, the aggregated ESV is significantly influenced not only by LULC dynamics but also by the spatial spillover effect. Thus, overall findings suggested an antagonistic nexus between the aggregated ESV and ESVf, since 98% of individual ESs were negatively declined as the built-up ecosystem expanded.

Impact of exclosures on woody species diversity in degraded lands: the case of Lemo in Southwestern Ethiopia.

Exclosures are popularly applied to rehabilitate degraded lands and to gradually restore the productive potential of the land in the long term. This study was conducted to examine the impact of removing human and livestock interference from a degraded land to allow natural recuperation for extended period of years. The aim was to assess the trend of changes in the composition, diversity and structure of the woody component of the vegetation within the exclosures. Degraded lands with different years of exclosure were compared with adjacent open grazing lands under similar environmental conditions. A Systematic transect sampling method was employed to collect vegetation data in sampling quadrat plots, each with a size of 20 m × 20 m, evenly distributed along parallel transect lines. All the woody plant species in each plot were identified and measured for DBH and height. The species diversity and density were analyzed using standard indices. The structural pattern and regeneration status of the woody vegetation was described using size class distribution plots. The findings showed that the woody vegetation composition significantly varied between exclosures and open grazing land. There was significantly (P < 0.05) higher diversity, richness and stand density of the woody species in the exclosures than in the open grazing lands. The size class distribution of the DBH and height of the recorded species exhibited an inverted "J" shape pattern suggesting a healthy regeneration status of the important species, while the distribution pattern in the open grazing lands revealed irregular and less interpretable pattern. This study evidently showed exclosures can successfully contribute to biodiversity restoration in highly degraded lands, perhaps due to improvements in the important micro-climate conditions such as moisture and organic matter.

Spatio-temporal changes in habitat quality and linkage with landscape characteristics in the Beressa watershed, Blue Nile basin of Ethiopian highlands.

An increase in human population generally exerts pressure on natural habitats and leads to a decline in biodiversity resources. As a proxy for biodiversity study, an evaluation of habitat quality (HQ) change caused by land use/land cover (LULC) and associated landscape structural changes may provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and landscape management. This study analyzed spatio-temporal changes in HQ over the last four decades and predicted the trends over the next three decades. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was employed to evaluate the state of HQ. Criteria of habitat naturalness, habitat complexity and a soil degradation index were used to classify habitat types. Results showed that, between 1972 and 2017, areas with high HQ indicators declined by about 20% while areas with poor HQ increased by 11%. An unprecedented expansion of anthropogenic LULC changes related to the growth of human settlements and artificial plantations and a decline in natural and semi-natural habitats resulted in the total loss of HQ by about 35%. The mean value of HQ decreased from 0.60 to 0.45 during the study period. The distribution of moderate levels of HQ, primarily in farmlands, remained essentially unchanged. Predicted HQ values are expected to follow a similar trend to past decades with 41.5% of the areas continuing to decline, although with a slight HQ improvement in some areas. The spatial distribution of HQ is negatively correlated with habitat degradation (R2 = 0.95 at p < 0.01) and slope (R2 = 0.84 at p < 0.05). HQ change also appears more strongly influenced by landscape composition than by configuration in the watershed. The most important landscape structure variables accounted for HQ change were LPI, PLAND and MPS of anthropogenic habitats, suggesting reducing habitat modifications and restoring degraded natural habitats is crucial to maintain biodiversity in the study area.

Changes in landscape composition and configuration in the Beressa watershed, Blue Nile basin of Ethiopian Highlands: historical and future exploration.

Analyzing long-term dynamics of landscape patterns can provide important insights into the changes in landscape functions, that are necessary for optimizing resource management strategies. This study primarily aimed at quantifying landscape structural change. The Land use/land cover (LULC) layers of 1972, 1987, 2002, and 2017 were mapped from Landsat images, and projected to 2032 and 2047. Factor analysis was then employed to select independent core metrics of landscape composition and configuration to characterize the landscape. A post-classification comparison indicated that, between 1972 and 2017, natural vegetation, grassland, barren land and waterbody covers declined by 89.9%, 67.9%, 67.8 and 15.9%, respectively. On the other hand, plantation increased by 692.1% followed by human settlement (138%) and farmland (21.8%). A similar trend is likely to continue in 2032 and 2047 with a slight decline in the plantation category in 2047. Analysis of landscape metrics revealed that between 1972 and 2017, the number of patches increased. Specifically, plantation, barren land, settlement and grassland increased by 171.4%, 69.7%, 65.8% and 28.6%, respectively. In contrast, natural vegetation, farmland and waterbody declined by 53.1%, 46.3% and 33.9%, respectively. Future predictions showed a declining trend of the number of patches for all LULC types. An increasing trend in the largest patch index and patch size for farmland, plantation, and settlement categories was observed across all years, suggesting intensified human activities in the landscape. Consequently, natural habitat category has declined and become fragmented. Landscape pattern has changed considerably and become more fragmented over the last 45 years. Nevertheless, the future projections suggest a decline in fragmentation and potentially increased assemblage of patches forming simple patterns with fewer number of large size class patches. The results of this study could perhaps be applied in designing strategies for landscape management planning and resource conservation decision-making.

Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia.

Understanding the hydrological response of a watershed to land use/land cover (LULC) changes is imperative for water resources management planning. The objective of this study was to analyze the hydrological impacts of LULC changes in the Andassa watershed for a period of 1985-2015 and to predict the LULC change impact on the hydrological status in year 2045. The hybrid land use classification technique for classifying Landsat images (1985, 2000 and 2015); Cellular-Automata Markov (CA-Markov) for prediction of the 2030 and 2045 LULC states; the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for hydrological modeling were employed in the analyses. In order to isolate the impacts of LULC changes, the LULC maps were used independently while keeping the other SWAT inputs constant. The contribution of each of the LULC classes was examined with the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) model. The results showed that there was a continuous expansion of cultivated land and built-up area, and withdrawing of forest, shrubland and grassland during the 1985-2015 periods, which are expected to continue in the 2030 and 2045 periods. The LULC changes, which had occurred during the period of 1985 to 2015, had increased the annual flow (2.2%), wet seasonal flow (4.6%), surface runoff (9.3%) and water yield (2.4%). Conversely, the observed changes had reduced dry season flow (2.8%), lateral flow (5.7%), groundwater flow (7.8%) and ET (0.3%). The 2030 and 2045 LULC states are expected to further increase the annual and wet season flow, surface runoff and water yield, and reduce dry season flow, groundwater flow, lateral flow and ET. The change in hydrological components is a direct result of the significant transition from the vegetation to non-vegetation cover in the watershed. This suggests an urgent need to regulate the LULC in order to maintain the hydrological balance.

The Status of Ethnobotanical Knowledge of Medicinal Plants and the Impacts of Resettlement in Delanta, Northwestern Wello, Northern Ethiopia.

The present study was conducted in Delanta (Ethiopia) to examine the use of medicinal plants and investigate the impacts of the 1984/85 resettlement program on the local people's knowledge on herbal medicine and its uses. The research was conducted with 72 informants in six study sites through semistructured interviews, group discussion, and market survey. In this study, 133 species belonging to 116 genera and 57 families were documented. These plants were mentioned for uses in the treatment of about 76 human and livestock ailments. The family Asteraceae was represented by the highest number with 14 species. Herbs accounted for 52.6% of the total species and leaves (32.6%) were the most frequently used parts. The analysis showed that the resettlement program has both positive and negative impacts on nature rehabilitation and local knowledge along with many human induced threats. Most of the plant knowledge is held by traditional healers and permanent residents. The people's preference for some medicinal plants gave indications of continuity of the ethnomedicinal information among the inhabitants. The findings inform that efforts need to be directed to in situ conservation in two of the plant community types which could protect a good proportion (about 50%) of the medicinal plant species.